It's Week 2 and our Lions have yet another matchup from last year's playoffs on their plates. The good news is that according to ESPN Research, the Lions are the fourth team to have this happen to them. The previous three all made the Super Bowl that year. Make of that what you will.
But that's getting ahead of ourselves. First, we have to sink the Bucs' ship once again, for the third time in the space of 12 months (Oct 15th last year, Jan 21st this year, Sept 15th this year). So yet again, here I am to tell you four things I'll be looking for when I watch the game.
The Blue Wall: The Bucs are in a spot of bother on their defensive line. The Bucs like to play a sort of 2-4-5 nickel, yet two of their best two pass-rushing linemen are likely out for this game (Calijah Kancey [68.9 pass-rushing grade from PFF last season] and Logan Hall [60.4]). This means that they will either have to elevate a DL like Mike Greene [59.5] or give backups like William Ghoulston [57.1] and Ben Stille [57.7 grade this season] starter-level snaps. This will hopefully give the interior of our offensive line a big advantage.
Last week, the interior was credited with allowing 22.2%, 11.1% and 22.2% of pressures on Goff respectfully going left-to-right. This stat is slightly skewed as PFF acknowledges on their page for this stat, players can share responsibility for pressure (e.g. if a defender splits a double team), so the percentages add up to more than 100% when tackles, tight ends and the QB are factored in. Even then, going up against what looks to be a better Rams interior pass-rush compared to the Bucs', all three of our interior linemen posted above-average pass-blocking grades from PFF (Glasgow 77.5, Ragnow 69.4, Zeitler 64.7 [Zeitler got dinged heavily for missing the stunt on our first offensive drive]). Therefore, one could hope for Goff to have little-to-no pressure in his face when he looks to uncork it to Jamo again.
Open the Floodgates: The Bucs are reallllll banged up in their secondary, with Josh Hayes (53.7 coverage grade last season), Bryce Hall (43.1 this season), Zyon McCollum (63.1), Antoine Winfield Jr. (57.3), and Tykee Smith (47.9) all carrying knocks that have ruled them out or left them questionable for tomorrow's game. Winfield is the big miss here as he is their best secondary player by a mile, as well as being one of the best safeties in the league (90.7 grade last season). This means the Bucs' projected starters are Jamel Dean (67.9 coverage grade this season), Christian Izien (63.1), and UDFA Keenan Isaac (90.2 grade in the preseason). Dean can play well at times, but trusting the others against Amon-Ra, Jamo and Leaf probably won't end well for the Bucs.
While our receiving core is weak right now (especially with Isaiah Williams being ruled out with an abdominal injury), with Jamo breaking out last week like spots on my teenage face (79.7 receiving grade) and presumably one of Tim Patrick (71.8 receiving grade in his last healthy season), Allen Robinson (51.6 receiving grade last season) or Donovan Peoples-Jones (53.3) being elevated from the practice squad, I can see Goff having a bounce-back game from last week's mediocrity against the Bucs' broken backend with the presense of an X to help draw coverage away from other weapons.
Right Down Their Throat: For some reason, Hutch has had issues against Luke Goedeke. In the two games against Tampa last year, he averaged a 68.3 grade including a 66.7 pass-rushing grade. However, maybe luckily for Hutch, Goedeke is out tomorrow with a concussion. It will be former Niner Justin Skule coming in for Goedeke in all likelihood. Last year, Skule earned a 69.8 offensive grade on 29 snaps, including a 79.2 pass-blocking grade. However, this comes from a Dan Skipper-like role, only playing more than 5 snaps in the last two games of the season (7 and 10 respectively). In his last season starting (which was 2020), Skule only got a 45.4 grade including a 30.4 pass-block grade.
While one might be a bit reluctant to predict another massive game for whoever will bookend Hutch as they will be going at one of the few tackles in the league who have any claim of being in the same stratosphere as Penei, Aidan should be able to match his 11-pressure performance from last week, hopefully with less "hook blocks".
Run, Forrest, Run: The Bucs' run defence is below average in yards and yards per attempt with 19th (138) and 22nd (4.6) respectively, as well as being in the bottom third of teams according to PFF, ranking 24th in PFF run defence grade (47.9) and 27th in tackling grade (43.4). The Lions' run offence is 9th in yards (163), 6th in yards per attempt (5.3), 14th in run blocking grade (70.0) and tied for 1st for run grade (87.3). Another big mismatch in the analytics is in EPA per rush, with the Lions ranking second in offence (0.32 EPA/rush) compared to Tampa's 23rd defence (0.04 EPA/play conceded). As I mentioned earlier, the Bucs' interior will be weak but will still have Vita Vea manning the middle of that line. However, with another week for Zeitler to jel with Penei and Frank, we should be able to get a bit more push up front, leading to more success on the ground than what we saw in quarters 2-4 last weekend.
Hot Take: Goff, going against a weakened Bucs secondary, takes two sacks but unloads for a 350/3/0 statline in a big win.
Score Prediction: Two offences with the potential to be explosive, going against defences that are working some things out in the secondary with some injury questions on the line. This game screams points. However, home-field advantage brings us another win on the path to New Orleans.
Detroit Lions 27, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21
How do you see the game going? Will the Lions get back-to-back wins, or will the Bucs plunder Ford Field for the dub?
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look forward to your conclusions on these players/positions after the game today, ty
Thanks Ash, RE TE's - Just to reiterate what Riz said ,& its worth noting what the Lions want their TE3 /4 to do, and how many game reps they'll actually get . Parker Hesse has been taking most Reps in camp primairly as blocker ( & FB ). Mitchel hasn't performed BUT, can Block & has some ST value,& was a draft pick. Zylstra is the best receiver -,but can't block - heresey on this team. So.........bearing in what Campbell said about the WR room ie its about the best players , irrespective of position......how about.......Mitchel as TE4 , & Zylstra ( TE5 ) taking the place of of WR5 ?
Ash, thank you so much for doing these. You and the rest of the ROTL UK gang are fantastic!
Greetings, I was glad to listen to your interesting interview. The season went really well. I liked the quality of your broadcast, which application did you use for this? Is it on this list? I just want to do live broadcasts