Our Lions will be back in black this Sunday as they face the Bills in the afternoon slate of games after our mini-bye. This hopefully means the team will be healthier, which is in tall order as this could be a Super Bowl preview. While this is potentially a game we can lose and still not be in a bad position for the division and the 1st seed in the NFC as it's a cross-conference matchup, that's not to say we should expect to lose.
So what matchups do the Lions need to dominate to win the game? Let's take a look, shall we?
Tackling the Issue: Taylor Decker will be back from his injury absence, strengthening our offensive line as we make that final push for the bye and homefield advantage in the playoffs.
If he returns, he'll face AJ Epenesa for most of the match. Epenesa has spent 90% of his snaps lined up against the LT this season, earning himself a 53.2 grade from PFF, with none of his grades topping the 60.0 benchmark. He has missed 14.3% of his tackles this season (4/28) for a 48.0 tackling grade. He also has a 10.0% run stop rate on the season, having made 20 such tackles so far this year, earning himself a 57.0 run defence grade. Epenesa hasn't been productive against the pass either, only creating 16 pressures on the season, though 5 of these are credited as sacks per PFF. He has also forced 6 hurries and hit the QB 5 further times, earning himself a 6.5% win rate and a 55.4 pass-rushing grade from PFF.
This could be a good matchup to ease Decker back into play, especially as his injury came during an upswing in the season after a shaky couple of weeks between the Dallas and Tennessee games. He has a 73.8 offence grade on the season, comprised of a 70.0 run-blocking grade and a 71.9 pass-blocking grade. Decker has given up 19 pressures on the season (6 sacks, 3 hits and 10 hurries) for a 95.9% pass-blocking efficiency. Therefore, while Decker is coming back from injury and perhaps will be a bit rusty, going up against the weaker of the Bills' pass rushers, who is having a below-average season, will ease him in before the last few games against conference foes.
On the other side, Sewell will be facing Greg Rousseau, who is really living up to his first-round pick with his third-straight 80.0+ graded season in a row so far. He has an 83.6 defence grade from PFF, made up of a 65.4 run defence grade, a 38.8 tackling grade, and an 84.0 pass-rushing grade. Rousseau has 50 pressures on the season (7 sacks, 14 QB hits and 29 hurries) and a 17.2% pass-rush win rate, hence his elite grade from PFF in this area. He has also missed 22.2% of his tackles this season (10/45), which explains his poor tackling grade. Rousseau has a 13.1% run stop rate on the season, having made 29 such tackles, though over a fifth (6) of these came in Week 1 against the Cardinals. This should be a good matchup to watch, as Sewell should be able to handle the power of Rousseau. Sewell himself has an 88.5 offence grade on the season, made up of a 90.9 run-blocking grade and a 74.5 pass-blocking grade. He has given up 97.7% pass-blocking efficiency, having given up 20 pressures (0 sacks, 3 QB hits and 17 hurries) this season.
Having both of our tackles back healthy should not only help protect Goff so he can deal some strikes against the Bills' secondary, but it could also help the efficiencies of our backs, allowing us to exert greater ball control and minimise the number of drives they have, lowering their potential to score.
Guarding Fort Goff: The Bills' defensive line also has a star on the interior in Ed Oliver. Oliver has lined up against the LG on 28% of his snaps, but this is still his most common alignment. After his "breakout" season in 2021, Oliver has come back down to Earth a bit, with his current season grade just under 10-grade points lower than that season (72.3 vs. 63.0). His grade is being heavily affected by his poor tackling (27.5) and run defence (43.9) grades. This might partly be caused by his smaller size (287 lbs), but it could also be a technique issue of arm tackling backs. This season, Oliver has missed over a quarter of his tackles (6/23; 26.1%), while also making 6 run stops of the season (3.6% run stop rate). However, Oliver has been good against the pass, earning himself a 71.2 pass-rushing grade from PFF. They credit him with 25 pressures on the season (1 sack, 7 QB hits and 17 hurries) and an 11.3% win rate.
Given where he lines up, Oliver will likely be seeing Glasgow on the majority of his snaps. Glasgow is having a rough season, with his 59.3 offence grade one of the lowest of his career (tied with his 2022 season in Denver, and only beaten by his rookie grade of 53.7). The rough part of his grade is his run-blocking, which is a subpar 58.0 (second-lowest of his career behind his rookie grade of 54.5). While his pass-blocking grade is also the second-lowest of his career (behind last year's 54.8), he has been okay in this regard with a 61.5 grade. He has given up 22 pressures on the season (2 sacks, 5 hits and 15 hurries) for a 97.2% pass-blocking efficiency.
This is perhaps the matchup in the trenches that appears to be the weakest for our Lions, as I would probably give Oliver the advantage here. However, there are ways to circumvent this issue; letting Ragnow double Oliver with Glasgow, leaving Zeitler to handle Daquan Jones, keeping a back in as an additional blocker, or running screens into the pressure to use the Bills' aggressiveness against them.
Left to Their Own Devices: When passing in front of the line of scrimmage, Allen is far better at passing to his left than between the hashes or to the right. Passing short, he has an 83.3 passing grade when throwing to his left. In the intermediate range, he has an 80.1 grade, and deep he has an elite 96.3 grade from PFF, having made 13 big-time throws to only one turnover-worthy play. Therefore, it stands that this is perhaps the side we need to defend "best" come play on Sunday.
Who is the corner who usually lines up over the outside left receiver? Rookie Terrion Arnold of course, who PFF charts as the RCB on 75% of his plays. While Arnold has perhaps had a rough start to his NFL career, particularly because of the penalties early in the season, he has bounced back over the past few weeks. While PFF still has him with a 51.3 defence grade on the season, including a 50.5 coverage grade which is heavily influenced by the aforementioned penalties and a 59.0 run defence grade that's affected by some poor edge setting against the Seahawks and Vikings, he still has a really good 74.7 tackling grade and has shown real improvement recently, particularly when he had to act as CB1 with Davis out. He has allowed a 60.3% completion rate in coverage for 11.2 yards per reception and a 95.3 passer rating. He hasn't allowed over 32 yards since the game against Tennessee, and even then roughly a third of this yardage came on one play. Therefore, despite what PFF says about our rookie corner, I trust him to hold down his side of the field to the best of his ability, perhaps with some Kerby shading to help ease his load.
Fans of the show might be able to guess who usually is the LWR for the Bills, as it's a guy who heard me talking about for all of the last college season. Having logged back-to-back-to-back full practises and so not carrying an injury designation, rookie X WR and former Seminole star Keon Coleman will be the guy Arnold will be trying to limit on Sunday. 52.1% of Coleman's snaps have come in that LWR per PFF. Having missed the past couple of games with a wrist injury, Keon has played 9 games this season, earning himself a 69.2 offensive grade from PFF, comprised of a 70.0 receiving grade and a 59.8 run-blocking grade. Coleman has run a route on 92.5% of his passing snaps, playing 94.1% of these out wide. He has caught 61.1% of his targets on a 13.0-yard ADOT for 1.89 yards per route ran, a 12.0% drop rate (3/22), a 41.7% contested catch success rate (5/12) and 19.0 yards a catch. Coleman has a 117.5 passer rating when targeted.
As much as it'll break my garnet-and-gold heart, I'll be rooting against Keon on Sunday, and I have the belief that Arnold will be able to keep him under wraps for the most part. The key will be forcing Allen to look elsewhere, which might cause Davis to be targeted more as he'll be covering Amari Cooper for most of the match. We need not discuss the slot as Amik has already made promises there.
Hot Take: Kerby takes another step above the rest of the league, picking off Allen on one of the deep shots Dan Orlovsky foolishly called for earlier this week.
Score Prediction: We're getting a little bit healthier which should help both sides of the ball. However, this is a damn good Bills team we'll be facing. This has all the makings of an absolute shootout, but with our ability to score in multiple ways and our good run defence, I can see us forcing the Bills into more "failed" drives than they can force us into, earning us the win.
Detroit Lions 34, Buffalo Bills 24
How do you see the game going? Will Detroit avenge the Thanksgiving loss from two years ago, or will Buffalo beat us black and blue to match the Motor City Muscle uniforms we'll be wearing?
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look forward to your conclusions on these players/positions after the game today, ty
Thanks Ash, RE TE's - Just to reiterate what Riz said ,& its worth noting what the Lions want their TE3 /4 to do, and how many game reps they'll actually get . Parker Hesse has been taking most Reps in camp primairly as blocker ( & FB ). Mitchel hasn't performed BUT, can Block & has some ST value,& was a draft pick. Zylstra is the best receiver -,but can't block - heresey on this team. So.........bearing in what Campbell said about the WR room ie its about the best players , irrespective of position......how about.......Mitchel as TE4 , & Zylstra ( TE5 ) taking the place of of WR5 ?
Ash, thank you so much for doing these. You and the rest of the ROTL UK gang are fantastic!
Greetings, I was glad to listen to your interesting interview. The season went really well. I liked the quality of your broadcast, which application did you use for this? Is it on this list? I just want to do live broadcasts