Happy Thanksgiving, you beautiful lot. While we might not be wearing our throwbacks, which are some good unis, we perhaps won't want a throwback to how these holiday games have gone the past few years. The last Thanksgiving game we won was so long ago, Decker and Glasgow were rookies and Anquan Boldin caught our only touchdown. But of course, this ain't the Lions of old, and maybe this Thanksgiving "curse" is the next one this iteration of the team knocks off on its way to the ultimate goal of a shiny shiny ring.
Unfortunately, there won't be a live watch along, so you won't be blessed/cursed with my and Matt's voices as you hopefully eat a good meal and watch some Lions domination. But do not fear, this preview will still give you some things to watch out for as you feast on football.
Key Line Pie: As is fast becoming tradition for these previews, we'll open up with some line play analysis. Surprisingly, contrary to what we expect from the Bears recently, all five of their offensive line starters are graded above 60 from PFF, including grades above 70 in pass protection.
Their weakness in run blocking is the C-RG combination according to PFF, as they are the only two OL starters to have a run grade below 73 from PFF. Former Niner Matt Pryor has the lowest grade from PFF with a 66.0, though this can be partially excused due to his usage this season. Pryor has taken at least one snap at LT, LG, RG and RT this season, starting a game at each of the last three. Center Coleman Shelton is the other Bear to grade below 73 in run blocking per PFF with a 68.0 grade. He doesn't have the excuse Pryor does, as he has taken every one of his 755 snaps so far this season at C.
Shelton is also one of the Bears' weaknesses in pass pro, posting a 73.1 pass-blocking grade on the season so far. He has a 98.5% pass-blocking efficiency, having given up 12 pressures (1 sack, 2 QB hits and 9 hurries) on the season. However, the worst pass blocker on the Bears according to PFF is sophomore RT Darnell Wright who has a 71.5 pass-blocking grade on the season. He has given up 21 pressures on the season (5 sacks, 3 hits and 13 hurries) for a 96.7% efficiency.
Given that Shelton is the biggest weakness on the Bears' line, this stands to be a big game for DJ Reader. Of his 313 snaps so far this season, 160 of them have come over the A-gaps. He has a 68.1 grade on the season, though this is weighed down by a 46.8 tackling grade (8.3% missed tackle rate [1 miss out of 12 attempts]) and a 59.1 coverage grade. Reader has a 63.6 run defence grade, having made 6 run stops so far this season (5% stop rate) with an average depth of tackle of 1.9 yards. He also has created 12 pressures on the season (1 sack, 5 hits and 6 hurries) for an 8.0% win rate and a 66.0 pass rush grade from PFF.
Pryor and Wright being weaknesses also brings Alim into play, as 317 of his 511 snaps on the season have been in the B-gaps. Alim has been much more fairly graded by PFF with an 80.6 defence grade on the season so far. While Alim has a worse run defence grade (63.4), he has made more tackles (14), has a better missed tackle rate (6.7% [1`/15]), a better tackling grade (65.2), more run stops (9), a better run stop rate (6.3%), and a better average depth of tackle (1.8 yards). McNeill also has a better coverage grade (70.3), and a better pass-rushing grade (79.3). Alim has 36 pressures on the season (4 sacks, 3 hits and 29 hurries) for a 14.5% win rate.
If Reader and McNeill can occupy the interior of their line, particularly on the right-hand side, it will free up the edges to pin their ears back. I almost expect the Bears to double Alim with how well he's playing, opening up one-on-one opportunities for Z to wreck Caleb's holiday.
A Second Helping of Key Line Pie: Of course, we have OL issues of our own. Decker will very likely be out tomorrow, barring a miraculous recovery. This means we'll have a hole at one of the tackle spots again, and given how it's a short week it could be very likely that we will once again see Dan Skipper at LT. This creates a big issue though, as the left-hand side of our line suddenly looks very vulnerable.
In his one start at LT, Skip earned a 58.7 offence grade from PFF, comprised of a 65.1 run-blocking grade (his second-highest of the season behind the Titans game [69.0]) and a 39.5 pass-blocking grade (second-lowest of the season, with last week's 30.5 against the Colts the only lower grade). In that start, he surrendered 3 pressures (a hit and two hurries) for a 95.2% efficiency.
At LG, Glasgow has been the worst of our starters with a 59.1 grade on the season, which is the worst of his career bar his rookie year. He has posted a 59.1 run-blocking grade, which is also the worst of his career bar 2016. His pass-blocking is up from last year from 54.8 to 59.2, but again it is the second-worst mark of his career so far. So far this season, Glasgow has given up 19 pressures (2 sacks, 4 hits and 13 hurries) for a 97% efficiency.
This gives the right-hand side of the Bears defensive line a massive advantage. The man most likely to be facing Skip tomorrow is former Nole DeMarcus Walker. Walker is having a fairly productive year in Chicago, posting a 71.9 defence grade. He has a 67.3 run defence grade, having made 32 tackles on the season, 18 of which were run stops, with an average depth of 2.7 yards. However, he has missed 5 of his tackle attempts (13.5% missed tackle rate) for a 53.6 tackling grade. He also has a 71.9 coverage grade on the season. However, it is perhaps his pass rush we care about most. In this area of the game, Walker is okay, having created 26 pressures on the season (4 sacks, 6 hits and 16 hurries) for a 12.7% win rate and a 65.5 grade from PFF.
Facing Glasgow shall be Byron Cowart, who for the most part has been average so far this season, though he had good games last week against the Vikings and in Week 8 against the Commanders. So far this season, he has a 61.5 defence grade, comprised of a 62.5 run defence grade, 26.2 in tackling and 61.4 in pass rush. The reason Cowart's tackling grade is so low is that he has missed 30.8% of his tackle attempts this season (4/13). In run defence, he had made 6 run stops (8.8% run stop rate), with an average depth of tackle of 1.1 yards. Cowart has created 7 pressures this season (1 sack, 1 hit and 5 hurries) for an 11.7% win rate.
Glasgow could have a bounceback game of sorts against Cowart, especially if Hank decides to slide Frank to the left to double Cowart, leaving Dexter one-on-one with Zeitler. However, I could see major issues for Skip against Walker if he doesn't get some help from a tight end on his shoulder, though this would then take that player out of the game as a quick read for Goff. However, so long as the right-hand side of the line holds its bargain, we should be able to gameplan around pressure from the left-hand side, giving us a chance to overcome that weakness.
Ba-Cover-la: I know, I know, not my best work (though that's not saying much). But I'd already leaned into the whole dessert theme so here we are. As we all know, or at least as you've probably guessed by the really bad pun, I love to discuss coverage.
The Bears run Cover 3 on 48.4% of their snaps, which is the 4th-most in the league. In that shell, they concede -0.096 EPA per play, which is the 7th-best mark in the league. This is their base zone coverage, and base coverage by a large margin. When they want to run man, the Bears run Cover 1, which they do on 19.3% of their plays (20th in the league). On these plays, they concede -0.143 EPA/play, which is the 9th-best mark in the league.
To the surprise of no one who listens to our podcast, the Lions have faced Cover 3 the most of any team in the league, going up against that shell on 46.9% of their plays. We have faced Cover 1 on 16.2% of our plays, which is the second-least in the league, but it is the coverage we run the most (36.1%, most in the league) so the team will also be used to going up against this as well.
So how do we attack these coverages? According to a study posted by Touchdown Wire in 2021, the best route concept to run against Cover 1 is Drive, which is a Dig from an inside receiver (LaPorta/Amon-Ra) combined with a shallow crossing route from the outside receiver (Jamo/Patrick). Below is an example of a play that uses a Drive concept.
The Drive concept is on the backside here, with the slot running the Dig while the X runs the Drag under the coverage of the linebackers. Against zone, the drag will sit in the soft area on the far end of the formation, while in man they will carry on running towards the sideline. In essence, the routes by the tight end and Z WR act as clearouts, making sure the X will have no defenders near him as the drag route will act as a natural pick, causing the CB chasing them to run into their linebackers, giving the X a bit more space. On this play, the RB will check-and-release against a potential blitzer, sitting down in zone or running a 5-yard out against man as the checkdown option if neither route on the Drive is open.
Likewise, this same study showed that the best concept to run against Cover 3 is Spacing. Spacing is a load of short routes designed to get the ball out quick on easy reads and throws; in essence taking the soft spots underneath that Cover 3 offers and trusting the receivers to create yards after the catch, which ours do easily. Again, below is an example of a play that uses Spacing.
This play is a lot easier to explain. Patrick runs a 5-and-out on the outside as the hot read, Amon-Ra runs a speed out, while Jamo and LaPorta both run hooks. The natural pick the crossing between Jamo and St. Brown creates should make this side the primary read, with LaPorta over the middle between the secondary and Patrick as the "checkdown". The benefit of this play is that it will get the ball out quick, which will negate any pressure from Goff's blindside.
Hot Take: With Carlton Davis III out, the load will fall on the young buck Terrion Arnold to step into the CB1 shoes. And he excels at it, playing on instinct and negating whoever he faces for a sub-50% completion rate and a pick
Score Prediction: I don't even remember what I said less than 24 hours ago on the preview podcast. Having Davis and Decker out will hurt our production, I think our streak of not allowing a tuddy will end, as will our ability to score touchdowns at a frequent rate, seeing some drives stall in the red zone when before we would be turning them into tuddies. However, the talent and coaching differential between the two teams is just too great in our favour, leading me to predict a fairly easy Lions victory.
Detroit Lions 26, Chicago Bears 17
How do you see the game going? Will our Lions continue their charge towards the Super Bowl, or will the Bears doom us to yet another Thanksgiving loss?
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look forward to your conclusions on these players/positions after the game today, ty
Thanks Ash, RE TE's - Just to reiterate what Riz said ,& its worth noting what the Lions want their TE3 /4 to do, and how many game reps they'll actually get . Parker Hesse has been taking most Reps in camp primairly as blocker ( & FB ). Mitchel hasn't performed BUT, can Block & has some ST value,& was a draft pick. Zylstra is the best receiver -,but can't block - heresey on this team. So.........bearing in what Campbell said about the WR room ie its about the best players , irrespective of position......how about.......Mitchel as TE4 , & Zylstra ( TE5 ) taking the place of of WR5 ?
Ash, thank you so much for doing these. You and the rest of the ROTL UK gang are fantastic!
Greetings, I was glad to listen to your interesting interview. The season went really well. I liked the quality of your broadcast, which application did you use for this? Is it on this list? I just want to do live broadcasts