In this edition of the Roar of the Lions UK game preview, we will be focusing on the lines and how we can try to overcome the injuries we have sustained. I learnt my lesson a few weeks ago to wait a bit to make sure most of the injury news is out before I try and make any major predictions, to save me from it blowing up in my face. However, in the case of this Thursday Night Football divisional smackdown against the Green Bay Slackers, it means that this game preview is more of a hors d'oeuvres before the main meal rather than the filling meal deal you eat at work the day before.
Filling in the Gaps: To put it bluntly, our current defensive line situation isn't inspiring. All three edge starters (Hutchinson at rush end, Davenport at closed end, Barnes at SAM) are basically out for the rest of the season. The starting 1T (Reader) is ruled out for this game with a shoulder injury he picked up last week, and the veteran backup at this spot (Peko) is also out for the season. Both backup closed ends (Paschal and Cominsky) are also out for this game, the former with a knee injury he picked up against the Bears last week, the latter with a PCL injury he sustained in camp with his return at an unspecified point of time ahead of us. Both backup 3Ts (Onwuzurike and Wingo) are also out for this game with injuries they got last week, with Wingo ruled out for the reason of the season with his injury. Two potential backups (Lynn and Bada) are also on season-ending IR with injuries they sustained in camp. This is all without including the injuries at off-ball linebacker, where only one of our top 4 heading into this season (Campbell) is not on IR.
To put it another way, here is a rough depth chart of the defensive line sorted by their positions. Non-highlighted players are on the 53 and healthy for the game. Red players are on IR. Yellow are set to be inactive for this game due to injury. Pink are on the practice squad. I realise a few of the players I mentioned are missing, and that some can play more than one position but for ease, I kept them to what I see as their primary position.
The good news is that we have two viable rush ends available tomorrow, and we can get by with just one SAM on the 53. The bad news is that we have no recognised closed end, our 1Ts have played a combined 84 defensive snaps this season, and the two backup 3Ts were guys we signed off other teams' practice squads earlier this week. This means we have to get creative to fill these holes while accepting we can't fix them all. I can foresee us using one of our practice squad elevations on Jamarco Jones as Decker is once again out with his knee injury. This means we can only elevate one other player from the PS this week, and for me, it has to be Isaiah Thomas.
I know, I know, this might not be a popular take. But hear me out, please.
Za'darius and AQ will likely be the starters and will take the majority of reps at edge, with Z likely sliding over to the closed end role. However, we need another edge, both as injury insurance, but also as a rotational piece with Z and AQ. While Adams and Williams have some experience on the edge so far this season (2 and 37 snaps respectively), they haven't had this experience in our scheme. Thomas has played 2 games for the Lions this season, taking 46 reps in these games. According to PFF, he has been our 3rd-best edge rusher this season, behind Hutch and Z. Maybe this is an indictment on the play of our edges this season, but in defence of the rest, there's less than 10 grading points between Thomas and our worst-ranked edge (Davenport with a 53.1 grade). While Thomas is not a flashy player, he is fundamentally sound, can hold the edge against the run, and acts as the "can-crusher" for the other pieces to work off to finish their pressures. Even then, Thomas has a 12.5% pass-rush win rate, so he can get to the QB when asked to. Thomas has also not missed a tackle this season and has a 4% run stop rate. That last stat doesn't sound too great, but when the only other edges on the team to post a rate more than 1% higher than Thomas is Hutch (5.5%) and Paschal (10%), it isn't too bad.
I know some might be calling for another player to get a chance (Chris Smith on the interior, or Isaac Ukwu or Mitchell Agude at SAM), both of these positions are coverable with what we already have on the roster in my (not-so-expert) opinion. We have five iDL pieces active already with McNeill, Pat O'Connor, Brodric Martin, and the recently signed Jonah Williams and Myles Adams. Adding a sixth when we have a need on the edge is a poor use of resources. As for the SAM position, this is a bit murkier as both Ukwu and Agude could take some snaps at rush end while the more traditional players slide to the closed end. However, while we still lead the league in base formation usage, this number has been dipping for the past few weeks to its current point of 47.5%, with our primary personnel being nickel once again (51%). The SAM role has become a backup role, only used on sub-packages in certain situations. Plus, if anything happens to Nowaske, the team will likely put a backup off-ball 'backer in this role (Ben Niemann) and use it only on obvious run downs. Therefore, elevating either Ukwu or Agude would also be a poor use of resources.
This will leave us relatively inexperienced on the interior as Alim is the only real veteran guy there. However, with the weakness on the interior of the Packers' line, and with the team's focus on stopping the run, we can compensate for this inexperience by just telling the "backups" to focus on stopping the run, simplifying their role. Then, on obvious passing downs, we can go into a NASCAR package with Thomas sliding into the interior and Z and AQ on the edge, giving us a greater pass rush presence to get to Love. Then again, love does mean nothing, just ask a tennis player.
Of course, we also have a need at returner with Leaf on IR for the next few weeks, which could also mean that Maurice Alexander could be elevated. However, we were in the same position last week and the team instead chose to sign him to the 53, play him on Thanksgiving, cut him and then re-sign him to the PS, and I could see them going this route again. Alternatively, we have Reynolds and Dorsey on the 53 who have professional return experience (admittedly with kicks rather than punts), and Gibbs who has return experience in college who could cover as punt returner for a week as greater needs take precedence over this position.
To Switch or Not to Switch: I'm sticking with the lines here, and again it's how we can deal with an injury. Decker is once again out with his knee injury, which means we will once again be turning to Skip. However, with a week between today and our last game, there is a slight possibility that the team could move Sewell to LT and put Skip at RT to better protect Goff's blindside. But is that the best course of action?
The Packers' best edge rusher has been Rashan Gary. He has played 480 snaps so far this season, earning himself a 69.1 defence grade from PFF. He has a 70.8 run defence grade, having made 17 run stops on the season (10.2% stop rate) and missed 1 of his 30 tackles (3.3% missed tackle rate). He also has pressured the QB 32 times (5 sacks, 6 QB hits and 21 hurries) for an 11.1% win rate and a 63.9 pass rush grade from PFF. Therefore, stopping him should be the main priority of the offensive line. This will mean keeping Sewell at RT as Gary has played 79% (379/480) of his snaps against the RT. This means Skip will be going up against third-year player Kingsley Enagbare. Enagbare has earned himself a 61.5 defence grade from PFF this season, made up of a 68.3 run defence grade and a 56.4 pass rush grade. He has 16 pressures on the season (3 sacks, 3 hits and 10 hurries) for a 6.3% win rate. He has also missed 1 of his 24 tackles this season (4.2% missed tackle rate) and has made 8 run stops (6.3% stop rate).
This will pit strength on strength, insomuch that our best tackle will be facing their best edge rusher, and that on the other side a good run blocker and mid pass blocker will be facing a good run stuffer and okay pass rusher. So long as the interior holds up their end of the bargain, we should still be able to get some good offensive line play which will give us an advantage.
Hot Take: The offensive line does not give up a sack on the day, protecting Goff and clearing lanes for a 150-yard rushing performance for Sonic and Knuckles.
Score Prediction: This is a scary one. The next week and a half is perhaps both of the toughest games left on the schedule before the postseason begins. With all the injuries we've sustained over the past few weeks along the lines, and with this being our third game in eleven days, fatigue could set in, leading to some mistakes. However, it's in our realm and we're the better-coached team, allowing us to grind out a win that allows us to clinch a playoff berth and effectively make the race for the division a two-horse one.
Detroit Lions 27, Green Bay Packers 24
How do you see the game going? Will our Lions rise above all the injuries to grit out another divisional win, or will the Packers upset our quest for a Super Bowl appearance?
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look forward to your conclusions on these players/positions after the game today, ty
Thanks Ash, RE TE's - Just to reiterate what Riz said ,& its worth noting what the Lions want their TE3 /4 to do, and how many game reps they'll actually get . Parker Hesse has been taking most Reps in camp primairly as blocker ( & FB ). Mitchel hasn't performed BUT, can Block & has some ST value,& was a draft pick. Zylstra is the best receiver -,but can't block - heresey on this team. So.........bearing in what Campbell said about the WR room ie its about the best players , irrespective of position......how about.......Mitchel as TE4 , & Zylstra ( TE5 ) taking the place of of WR5 ?
Ash, thank you so much for doing these. You and the rest of the ROTL UK gang are fantastic!
Greetings, I was glad to listen to your interesting interview. The season went really well. I liked the quality of your broadcast, which application did you use for this? Is it on this list? I just want to do live broadcasts