Yes, yes, it's another bad pun title. But it could have been worse. Other titles in consideration were "I Know Every Line and Verse", "Let's Con-Verse", "Would You Fiske It for a Chocolate Biscuit?" and "Jim'll Fiske It for You" (our British readers will know why that last one is in the dustbin). Anywaysssss...
FOOTBALL IS BACK BABY! Our Lions welcome the LAmbs (sorry, the Rams) into their den for the second time in 2024, opening up their season on Sunday Night Football at home against an old foe. As per usual, let me tell you some of the things I will be looking out for when I watch so you know what I will be ranting about on Monday night.
Up the Seam: Last season, the Rams ran Cover 3 the most out of all coverage types (174 attempts faced in this coverage). While their DC Raheem Morris left for Georgia to become Atlanta's HC, they promoted their linebackers coach Chris Shula to DC. However, he was the defensive backs coach in 2022, so it seems he would try to have consistency with what he used to run. Therefore, it would be reasonable to presume the Rams will run a lot of Cover 3 on Sunday night.
And what beats Cover 3? Plays that attack the seams between the coverage shells on the backend, or between the levels of the linebackers and defensive backs. For instance, look out for dagger concepts that put the flat defender in a high-low situation (see below). In the case of our offence, LaPorta would be running the seam, with Jamo running the deep in. If the defender tracks Jamo and Goff looks off Johnson with his eyes, SLP would be open deep on that route. If not, Goff would have to read off Lake and throw to either St. Brown or Jamo based on the leverage.
Another potential play we could run to challenge their coverage is Y Cross (see below play diagram for PA Power Y Cross Z Curl). Again, LaPorta would be the first read, with Wright/Jamo on the curl-flat combination being the second read. The outside corner and FS would bail on the post route, leaving LaPorta open over the middle for a big pickup.
Of course, these are only two potential plays we could run. But given the Rams' propensity for running Cover 3, expect a lot of plays targeting the weaknesses of this type of coverage, which we have a lot of as we used to face Cover 3 a lot the past few years when we faced Green Bay (169 attempts in Cover 3 by the Packers last season).
Nole Knowledge: Come on, it's me. I'm gonna big up my boys. After the retirement of Aaron Donald this offseason, the Rams went for the quantity over quality approach, which has had mixed results in the past (just ask Christian Purslow how replacing Jack Grealish with three players went...). As part of this defensive shakeup, LA spent their first two picks on former Florida State defensive lineman, taking edge Jared Verse in the first (hey, that rhymes) before taking Combine standout Braden Fiske in the second.
Verse is a great pass rusher, and is able to turn speed into power easily, which is something that Sewell struggles against. This could make life a bit harder for Goff on Sunday, especially if Verse is able to target that inside shoulder with such a move. However, Verse struggles a bit in run defence as his tackling form isn't perfect, leading to a 19.1% missed tackle rate last season (though this is perhaps inflated by him missing his only tackle attempt against the Hokies). Therefore, while we could see Verse getting some wins in the passing game on Sunday night, expect Sewell to have his number in the run game.
Similarly, Fiske is a better pass rusher than run defender, due partly to his size. Stylistically, he is similar to our own Levi and Wingo, insomuch as that he is also a lighter interior defender who is able to flex out to the 5T in some base even front packages as a big end. In Fiske's case, his weaknesses are his lack of size (he's in the 290lbs range, which means he is giving up at least 20lbs to our OL), and his lack of a plan when pass-rushing, instead relying on his athleticism in a bull-in-a-china-shop style attack. If Graham, Frank or Kevin are able to get their hands on him, they will likely be able to neutralise him.
Waiting with Bates' Breath: Okay, even I'm not proud of that one. It's supposed to be a play on bated breath, but it is what it is. Here at ROTL UK, we pride ourselves on our special teams takes. That's part of the reason I'm sitting here waiting for a Hogan Hatten home jersey to be delivered, but in typical Fanatics fashion, it's late and won't be here for the game. But that's by the bye. This season we are putting our faith in a new, "rookie" kicker in Jake Bates, as well as a rookie UDFA long snapper in Hatten. This, combined with the new kickoff rules, suggests we might have some growing pains on special teams on Sunday night. Usually, this unit is good for us (14th-best last season per PFF team grades), especially on coverage. But Matt and I might have to endure some pain as the special team sickos we are, in particular when Bates steps up to kick some extra points.
New Graphics: This is a tiny little spoiler for tomorrow's alternative broadcast, but consider it a bribe to come watch. Over the offseason, Matt has been working hard to upgrade our graphics packages on our live watch-along streams to give you the best possible viewing experience. So if you have some spare time (and don't mind listening to me going on diatribes about various random stats), come tune in and listen to me and Matt react live to the game.
Hot Take: F it, I've said it in a few places, and there's no better time for it to happen than Week 1. Hogan Hatten forces a fumble on punt coverage. He did it at Idaho, there's little tape on him in the pros. He could catch everyone who doesn't scout long snappers by surprise by making a great play.
Score Prediction: Two offences with the potential to be explosive, going against defences that are integrating new pieces as part of an overhaul. This game screams points. However, home-field advantage and not having a new defensive co-ordinator gives our Lions more stability and a one-score win.
Detroit Lions 31, Los Angeles Rams 24
How do you see the game going? Will the Lions start their season 1-0 like they did last year, or will the Rams avenge the wildcard loss?
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look forward to your conclusions on these players/positions after the game today, ty
Thanks Ash, RE TE's - Just to reiterate what Riz said ,& its worth noting what the Lions want their TE3 /4 to do, and how many game reps they'll actually get . Parker Hesse has been taking most Reps in camp primairly as blocker ( & FB ). Mitchel hasn't performed BUT, can Block & has some ST value,& was a draft pick. Zylstra is the best receiver -,but can't block - heresey on this team. So.........bearing in what Campbell said about the WR room ie its about the best players , irrespective of position......how about.......Mitchel as TE4 , & Zylstra ( TE5 ) taking the place of of WR5 ?
Ash, thank you so much for doing these. You and the rest of the ROTL UK gang are fantastic!
Greetings, I was glad to listen to your interesting interview. The season went really well. I liked the quality of your broadcast, which application did you use for this? Is it on this list? I just want to do live broadcasts