In the words of CJ, oh s**t, here we go again...
Just like clockwork, we must once again travel to Jerry World to face the Cowgirls. But our fates may be changing as to the outcome this time, I declare that eligible.
By PFF grade, we're better (83.9 [3rd] to 68.5 [24th]). By DVOA, we're better (20.5% [5th] to 0.3% [18th]). By EPA, we are better than Dallas in every aspect of the game.
But what aspects will I be watching for when I try and follow along at work on Sunday night? Let me tell you.
A Steele for Hutch: Another week, another time for Hutch to face off against a weak RT. At least this time it's a starter rather than a backup, so we can be rid of those pesky asterisks that have cursed us for the past 13 months or so. While Terence Steele is a decent run blocker (82.3 run-blocking grade from PFF so far this season), he has not posted an average pass-blocking game so far (highest grade was Wk4 against the Giants [59.3]). He has a 95.9% pass-blocking efficiency, having given up 14 pressures so far this season. On the other side, Hutch has a 94.2 pass-rushing grade with 40 pressures on the season and a 35.4% pass-rush win rate. On true pass sets, this increases to a 94.6 grade and a 45.5% win rate.
While we haven't found a perfect solution for the big end and SAM roles just yet, this should be a good matchup for Hutch to continue his DPOY campaign, despite what some on X believe with recency bias covering their eyes.
A Blunted Sword: On the inverse, the offensive line has a good matchup. With Tank and Parsons out, Decker and Sewell will likely see Chauncey Golston and Carl Lawson. The former isn't too much of a downgrade on Parsons, posting a 69.6 pass-rushing grade with 11 pressures so far this season. Lawson, on the other hand, is a massive downgrade with 5 pressures and a 47.8 grade so far this season. All of the aforementioned edges are pretty similar in the run game (all of them grade out between 61 and 66 in run defence per PFF) so going to the backups will have a negligible effect on Dallas' ability to defend the run.
Dallas' front seven is further weakened by the news that veteran Eric Kendricks has been ruled out, and his backup Nick Vigil is questionable. This leaves them with three linebackers who have taken snaps so far this season. A former draft crush of mine has been the Cowboys' best 'backer so far this season according to PFF. Damone Clark has a 67.5 grade, including post-70 grades in run defence and tackling. If Vigil is unable to go, he is my suspected MIKE. At the WILL, we will see rookie Marist Liufau. He's had some first-year struggles with a 53.0 grade, with his only above-average grade being a 69.1 tackling grade, though a 49.4 pass-rushing grade brings his overall down. At the SAM, former Longhorn DeMarvion Overshown has been a good backer, though he has struggled against the run with sub-60 grades in run defence and tackling. Still, his coverage ability from his safety background brings his grade up to 61.1.
All in all, if the stats didn't scream this already, the game plan should be to run the damn ball. Load up Monty, Gibbs, Reynolds and Vaki and force the ball down the Cowboys' throat.
A Stoppable Force Meets an Immovable Object: Speaking of running the ball, it's no secret that on defence, we like to stop the run (7th-best run defence grade from PFF [68.2]). It's also not a secret that Dallas hasn't been good at running the ball this season, with the 18th-best run-blocking grade (62.1) and 29th rushing grade (65.2). As shown above, in EPA there's less disparity as we have the 11th run defence to their 14th run offence, but it's still a net positive for us.
As for the backs we'll see, fairly unheralded Rico Dowdle is the leader in the clubhouse with 4.1 yards per carry, a 51.9% success rate, 2.8 first downs a game and a 67.5 rushing grade from PFF. The fullback and former Bison Hunter Luepke has the second-best rushing grade on their team with a 65.6 grade, 3.5 yards per attempt, 0.6 first downs a game and a 75% rushing success rate. Zeke's second stint in Dallas hasn't exactly been a success, with a 62.1 rushing grade and only 30 carries so far this season for 3.3 yards a carry, 1.2 first downs a game and a 40% rushing success rate.
This plays into our hands. Stop them running the ball, force Dak to pass, and let the secondary take advantage. It's certainly possible given how the two teams have performed so far, even with the game being in Jerry World.
AA Cannons at the Ready: The issue for Dallas if we do inevitably take the run off the board for them is that their receivers haven't exactly been great this season. 4 of their 6 top receiving grades on PFF are backs, either half or full, including the top 3.
Lamb hasn't hit his stride yet this season with a 68.2 grade, 2.07 yards per route ran, a 15.1 yards per reception average, a 65.8% catch rate, and a 10.7% drop rate. Unfortunately for him, he is not slated to have a Kindle Vildor slip after a linebacker somehow misses a sack on Dak to help pump up his stats. According to PFF, Dowdle is their leading receiver as well as rusher, with a 78.8 grade on the season. He averages 9.2 yards per reception, a 78.6% catch rate, 1.46 yards per route ran and no drops on the season. Dallas' best wide receiver according to PFF is Jalen Tolbert with a 68.6 grade, 12.4 yards per reception, 1.43 yards per route ran, a 74.1% catch rate and no drops on the season. Former draft crush of mine Jake Ferguson is their leading tight end, with a 65.8 receiving grade this season. He is averaging a 73.3% catch rate, 10.4 yards per catch, 1.85 yards per route ran and no drops on the season.
What does this mean for us if we do make Dak have to attack in the air? It means we bring out the flak cannons (sorry, the intrusive thoughts to have all those "k" ending words won). Anzalone will likely have an eye on Ferguson, with some help from Branch covering Dowdle in his new safety role. This will leave the two outside receivers for Arnold and Davis to worry about, and I think they're up to the task. The only knocks we can have on our outside corners right now are some poor run fits, some missed tackles, and the flags. But it seems there's an increase in those kinds of flags this season (just ask Sauce what happened on his trip to London last week). As soon as they get that technique down, we have a great outside duo. We've had the bye to work on that. Let's see what they can do.
Hot Take: Kerby makes it four endzone interceptions on the year as he crushes the Cowboys' hopes when they enter desperation mode in the fourth quarter.
Score Prediction: Dallas has been struggling at home in the inverse of their 2023 season. The Lions have been pretty good this season, a wobble at home against Tampa aside. With the extra week of rest and a fairly clean bill of health, we can get another monkey off our back as we venture towards that elusive Super Bowl appearance.
Dallas Cowboys 17, Detroit Lions 27
How do you see the game going? Will the Lions break the curse against the Cowboys, or will Dallas ride away with yet another victory over our Lions?
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look forward to your conclusions on these players/positions after the game today, ty
Thanks Ash, RE TE's - Just to reiterate what Riz said ,& its worth noting what the Lions want their TE3 /4 to do, and how many game reps they'll actually get . Parker Hesse has been taking most Reps in camp primairly as blocker ( & FB ). Mitchel hasn't performed BUT, can Block & has some ST value,& was a draft pick. Zylstra is the best receiver -,but can't block - heresey on this team. So.........bearing in what Campbell said about the WR room ie its about the best players , irrespective of position......how about.......Mitchel as TE4 , & Zylstra ( TE5 ) taking the place of of WR5 ?
Ash, thank you so much for doing these. You and the rest of the ROTL UK gang are fantastic!
Greetings, I was glad to listen to your interesting interview. The season went really well. I liked the quality of your broadcast, which application did you use for this? Is it on this list? I just want to do live broadcasts