We'll have Indiana Nights on our screens tomorrow, for a 1 pm kickoff (or 6 pm for us UK folks), as our Lions travel to Lucas Oil Stadium to take on the Colts in their own pasture. While our Lions have been cruising and bruising against the AFC South so far this season (though we could never be the worst nightmare of that division as that title is already taken), can they finish the sweep in a brutal fashion not seen since Victorian times? And if they are to, what matchups will they need to take advantage of?
I'm Only Happy When It Raimann: Once again, I'm going to open with a lineman matchup. The Colts' starting LT (and former Chippewa) Bernard Raimann will be out with a knee injury, meaning third-round pick Matt Goncalves will start his third game of the season (played Weeks 9 and 11). Luckily for us, I scouted him for the podcast so we can get an in-depth look at how he plays and what we can expect tomorrow.
Goncalves was a better pass-blocker than run-blocker at Pitt according to PFF and my own scouting based on the '23 Backyard Brawl. He tore his ACL during his last year in college, which affected his ability to train for the draft process, but he earnt a 7.69 RAS. Goncalves is a really competitive player who plays through the whistle, even attempting to make a shoestring tackle on an interception return. He has good fast feet, and has good lateral movement when the protection is slid to one side. I really liked his pass sets, and how he used his hands as when he is engaged with a defender, he rarely lets go. However, he has short arms which means he can lose reps if the defender gets to the point of contact gets in first, and he can give up the inside shoulder a bit too easily (just like rookie Penei). He also had below-average physical skills before the ACL injury which affected his ability to recover if he was beaten easily, and he was susceptible to bull rushes due to his light lower body.
It looks like some of these deficiences have carried over to the pros as he sports an 64.2 offence grade on the season so far, but his proficiency has flipped to run blocking as he has a 71.8 grade in this aspect but only a 53.8 in pass protection. This low pass blocking grade is the result of Week 9 and 10, when Goncalves gave up 3 pressures in each game (1 sack, 1 hit and 1 hurry against Minnesota, then 2 sacks and a hit against Buffalo). However, he bounced back last week against the Jets, only allowing 1 hurry on his 33 pass-blocking snaps.
Given that Z lined up against the LT on 61% of his DL snaps last week, it is likely he will be the one facing Goncalves the most tomorrow. In his only game in the Honolulu blue so far, Smith played fairly well. He got three pressures on his 26 pass-rushing snaps, which is fairly good for his debut (at least in my opinion, I know some want more than 3 pressures a game from the big end alone, so god knows what they want from the rush end who is supposed to get the pressures😜). The thing that tanked his grade is his tackling as he missed his only tackle attempt, giving him a 28.0 tackling grade and a 45.3 run defence grade. However, that was against a more experienced tackle in Walker Little with only a week in the building, so one can expect a better statline from Za'Darius tomorrow. One also better hope from some better tackling from Smith as we all know how mobile Richardson can be, so setting the edge against scrambles (both designed and non-designed) will be very important.
Moore Moore Moore: One of the key matchups for the Colts to beat us is to slow down the Sun God. This will be the task of Kenny Moore II, who has been the best defender for them this season with a 81.4 defence grade from PFF, including a 80.6 coverage grade. He has taken 214 coverage snaps in the slot so far this season. On those snaps, he averages a target every 5.5 snaps (39 on the season) and a catch every 7.9 snaps (27) for a 69% completion rate. He allows 1.09 yards per snap, or 8.2 yards per catch, for 3 touchdowns and an interception for a 98.3 passer rating when covering the slot receiver. Overall, Moore has allowed a 70% catch rate for 7.7 yards per reception on a 6.4 yard ADOT, an 8% forced incompletion rate and a 108.0 passer rating when targeted.
Amon-Ra is targeted on 22.8% of his snaps in the slot, reeling in 26 of these 34 targets for catches (76.5% completion rate) on an 6.8 yard ADOT for 10.7 yards per reception, 4.2 yards after the catch per reception, 1.87 yards per route ran, a 3.7% drop rate, a 50% contested catch rate, 17 first downs, 4 touchdowns and an interception for a 127.0 passer rating when targeted and an elite 90.1 receiving grade. Overall, St. Brown has caught 84.4% of his targets (65/77) for 10.5 yards a catch, 2.4 yards per route ran, a 1.5% drop rate (1/77), a 70% contested catch rate (14/20), 43 first downs, 9 touchdowns, an interception and a 137.3 passer rating when targeted and a 89.7 receiving grade.
This will be a tightly contested battle between arguably the best defender and reciever on the grass at Lucas Oil tomorrow, but I trust Amon-Ra a lot more than I worry about Moore. Kenny might be able to make a few tackles on the Sun God, but I do expect this matchup to go much like an episode of South Park.
Sugar, We're Going Down(s): Of course, the inverse of the above discussion is also true. The Colts' best reciever is their slot guy Josh Downs. Downs is targeted on 26.9% of his snaps in the slot, catching 39 of these 52 targets for a 75% catch rate, 12.1 yards per reception on a 8.3 yard ADOT, 4.4 yards after the catch per reception, 2.44 yards per route ran, a 4.9% drop rate, a 50% contested catch rate, 24 first downs, and 3 touchdowns and interceptions, for a 97.5 passer rating when targeted and a 90.7 receiving grade. Downs has caught 50 of his 68 targets on the season (73.5%) on a 7.2 yard ADOT for 11.3 yards per reception, 2.47 yards per route ran, a 3.8% drop rate (2/68), a 37.5% contested catch rate (3/8), 30 first downs, 4 touchdowns and 3 interceptions for a 87.0 receiving grade and a 99.3 passer rating when targeted.
Facing him is (inter)nationally underrated FA pickup Amik Robertson. Robertson has been the slot defender for 211 coverage snaps, averaging a target every 4.5 snaps (47) and a catch every 7.3 snaps (29) for a 62% catch rate. Amik has allowed 1.68 yards per snap in the slot, or 12.2 yards per catch (5.4 after the catch), for a touchdown and a 92.1 passer rating. Overall, Robertson has allowed a 61.2% catch rate in coverage on an 11.0 yard ADOT for 12.5 yards per reception, a 10% forced incompletion rate and a 91.8 passer rating when targeted for a 56.0 coverage grade from PFF.
Overall, just as the matchup above, the advantage lies with the offence. However, I expect Glenn and Townsend to have honed on this area and come up with ways to negate his impact on the game, such as leaning into Cover-1 and having Branch in the box to get to Downs and Cox as Richardson's hot reads.
Hold the Line: The Colts have found a renewed focus on the run game with the reintroduction of Richardson into the lineup. Last week against a reasonably formidable Jets defensive line, they ran the ball 35 times for 91 yards and a pair of touchdowns. With the use of RPOs, read options and traditional handoffs, stopping the run to force Richardson to pass will be pretty important. What will be helpful is that we have an insight into this Colts team as our AHC/RB coach Scotty Montgomery used to be the RB coach in Indy before he came to the light side of the Force, and that he is seen as one of the best guys for read option. Bodes well, don't it?
The Colts' lead back is former Badger Jonathan Taylor, who the elder Monty turned from a second-round pick into one of the best backs in the league. Under his first year under Montgomery's tutelage, Taylor led the league in rushing yards and touchdowns. This season, Taylor has been far from that form, having toted the ball 150 times for 4.5 yards a pop, 5 touchdowns, 1 fumble, 2.86 yards after contact per attempt, 20 runs of 10+ yards and 18 forced missed tackles. Taylor also sports a league-low 32% rushing success rate (of all backs to have carried the ball over 99 times). This has earned him a 58.2 rushing grade from PFF. Of course Richardson now figures into that rushing game, having carried the ball 51 times for 5.4 yards a carry, 3 touchdowns, 8 fumbles, 3.53 yards after contact per carry, 12 runs of 10+ yards, 11 missed tackles, a 58.8% rushing success rate and a 55.5 rushing grade from PFF.
Luckily for us Lions fans, we rank in the top-10 for yards per attempt allowed (4.3 which is tied for 9th with the Jags, Rams and Niners), 3rd in rushing success rate allowed (34.1%), and 5th in rush EPA allowed (-0.167) and yards per game allowed (94.8). Furthermore, all four starters on our defensive line own run defence grades over the 60-point average set by PFF. Alim has made 9 run stops on the season (7% rate), making 14 tackles at an average depth of 1.8 yards and only missing 1 so far this season for a 66.5 grade from PFF. Josh Paschal has a DL-leading run stop rate of 8.6% (7 made on 85 run defence snaps), making 9 of his 10 tackle attempts at a depth of only a single solitary yard for a 63.7 grade from PFF. Reader has the lowest run defence grade from PFF with a 62.0, but even he has made 10 of his 11 tackle attempts at an average depth of 2.3 yards, including 5 run stops (4.7%). Despite his poor performance against the run last week (according to PFF), Smith has a 62.2 run defence grade on the season, having made 16 of his 17 tackle attempts at an average depth of 1.9 yards, including 6 run stops (5.1%).
Therefore, so long as Paschal and Smith hold their edge contain, we can trust Alim and Reader to keep the linebackers clean to make plays against the run, even with AA out injured. Hell, both projected starters at 'backer have run defence grades above 80 (83.0 for Campbell, 87.6 for Rodrigo). Malcolm hasn't missed a single one of his 13 tackle attempts, including 8 run stops (11.8%). Campbell has made 23 run stops on the season (12.6%) and has only missed 5.9% of his tackle attempts (3/51). If we can shut down the Colts' run game, we can force Richardson into bad situations for Kerby and Branch to take advantage of.
Hot Take: Sonic and Knuckles both individually outgain the Colts on the ground.
Score Prediction: We know how things go when teams wear special uniforms against us. The Bucs last year in their Creamsicles, the Packers this year in their throwbacks, the Texans in their Battle Reds; all of them tasted defeat at our hands in those pretty dresses of theirs. I can see the Colts doing the same. It will be closer than the Jags game last week, but we are just too talented and too well-coached compared to them.
Indianapolis Colts 17, Detroit Lions 30
How do you see the game going? Will our Lions continue their charge towards the Super Bowl, or will the Colts buck the trend and halt us in our tracks?
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look forward to your conclusions on these players/positions after the game today, ty
Thanks Ash, RE TE's - Just to reiterate what Riz said ,& its worth noting what the Lions want their TE3 /4 to do, and how many game reps they'll actually get . Parker Hesse has been taking most Reps in camp primairly as blocker ( & FB ). Mitchel hasn't performed BUT, can Block & has some ST value,& was a draft pick. Zylstra is the best receiver -,but can't block - heresey on this team. So.........bearing in what Campbell said about the WR room ie its about the best players , irrespective of position......how about.......Mitchel as TE4 , & Zylstra ( TE5 ) taking the place of of WR5 ?
Ash, thank you so much for doing these. You and the rest of the ROTL UK gang are fantastic!
Greetings, I was glad to listen to your interesting interview. The season went really well. I liked the quality of your broadcast, which application did you use for this? Is it on this list? I just want to do live broadcasts