For once, I am not giving you a bad pun based on a player's name. Instead, I'm going mythological, and using my Masters in Classics for the title. Like the old gods, our Lions are facing the Titans this week. Unlike that famous war, hopefully, the game won't feel like it lasts ten years (yes, the Greeks loved things lasting a decade).
As per usual for these previews, I will give you the matchups I'll be looking out for on tomorrow's live reaction (thank you Sky for not picking this game).
The Phalanx of Detroit People Movers: The strength of the Titans' is their defensive line, while ours is (usually) our offensive line. Therefore, we can expect some trench warfare like it's 490 BC.
In particular, the Titans are strong on their interior with one-time trade target Jeffery Simmons and rookie nose guard T'Vondre Sweat. Both have graded out well against the run with both sporting 70+ in both run defence and tackling from PFF. Neither have missed a tackle so far this season with an average tackle depth of 1.1 yards and post run stop rates of over 5%. The other starter is Sebastian Joseph-Day who is grading just below average with a 59.1 overall grade.
The good news is that SJD usually lines up over the RG, which matches him up against Zeitler. Zeitler has been our second-best offensive lineman so far this season with an 82.1 grade, grading above 70 in both run- and pass-blocking. Likewise, Sweat will face Frank (obviously), who has been our third-best lineman with a 79.1 grade, comprised of an elite 90.0 run-blocking grade and a sub-par 52.5 pass-blocking grade, having surrendered 8 pressures and 3 penalties so far this season.
The bad news is that Simmons will face Glasgow, who has been the weakest of our offensive line starters so far this season. Graham has an average 60.8 grade on the season, with a subpar 59.2 pass-blocking grade (13 pressures and four penalties) and a 64.5 run-blocking grade. Furthermore, Arden Key has been the Titans' best pass-rusher according to PFF, and he usually lines up over the LT, which means he'll face Decker, who has been the second-worst lineman according to PFF (69.8 offence grade; 71.4 pass-blocking, 65.2 run-blocking).
This is a matchup of strong-vs-weak, which suggests we'll keep the back in on Goff's blindside a bit more than usual to help slow any pressure from that side while trusting the right-hand side of our line to neutralise their matchups.
The Greeks Loved the Number 3, and so Do the Titans: Take a wild guess what coverage the Titans run the most.
If you guessed Cover 3, you'd be right. They run that coverage on 24.4% of their defensive snaps, which is the 5th-most in the league. However, they are the worst in the league at running C3, allowing 0.398 EPA/play when in this coverage (we are the best at C3 with -0.351 EPA/p, and the league average is 0.056 EPA/p). The Titans also rank 5th in quarters usage with 22.8% of their defensive snaps, and 22nd in EPA/p allowed in this coverage with 0.044. The Titans are best in C1, with -0.085 EPA/p allowed (6th-best in the league) and a 22.5% usage (18th). Tennessee disguises its coverage on 32.5% of its plays, which is 22nd in the league.
The projected starters for the Titans at outside corner are their top-rated ones, with former UDFA Darrell Baker Jr. leading the way with a 79.2 defence grade (none below 75) and rookie Jarvis Brownlee Jr. with a 67.7 grade. Both have a completion percentage below 60 or less than 15 yards per completion, though Baker is the clear leader in both of these stats. Brownlee has more PBUs (3:1) and penalties (1:0) on the season so far.
In the slot, Roger McCreary has been about average, though his 26.3% missed tackle rate and 70.8% completion rate allowed tanks his grades from PFF. "Slot merchant" Amon-Ra St. Brown and preseason hero Isaiah Williams project to have good days receiving when they face him. However, the Titans will likely be focussing on the slot given Jamo's absence, drawing coverage inside which could help the outside receivers get some single looks (Tim Patrick in particular with his 4-inch height advantage over both outside corners). In essence, the receivers will have a good day if Goff is able to connect with them, which shouldn't be an issue if the line can give him time.
ριπτω βραχυ: Yes, yes, I'm flexing that I know some Ancient Greek. Sue me.
As I mentioned on the preview podcast, the Titans run a West Coast-style offence based on the Bengals' and Raiders' schemes due to their head coach's background. This means they love to throw short all the time. In fact, only two Titans receivers have averaged more than 10 yards a reception this season, and three have an average depth of target above 10 yards, yet the Lions will only see one of these, and he has the worst receiving grade on the team. This is FA acquisition Calvin Ridley, with a 52.3 receiving grade on the season. He has caught 36.4% of his targets for 183 yards, 6 first downs, a singular touchdown and 1.02 yards per route ran, while also sporting a 25% drop rate and a 20% contested catch rate. Not good numbers from their WR1...
Their highest-graded WR is slot veteran Tyler Boyd who came over from Cinci with Callahan. He has a 63.6 receiving grade on the season. He has a 75% catch rate, a 0% drop rate, a 57.1% contested catch rate, 1.04 yards per route ran, a 6.6 ADOT, 9.4 yards per reception, and 10 first downs. Tennessee has 2 tight ends and 2 backs who have graded higher than Boyd in receiving, which proves the point of their attacking teams with short throws that aim to stretch coverages horizontally rather than vertically. The Titans' best receiving grade belongs to Nick Vannett with a 73.0 grade, as he has caught all 8 of his targets for 5.6 yards a reception, 2 first downs and a tuddy. He averages 1.36 yards per route run on a 1.4-yard ADOT. However, the Titans' projected starters own 5 of the 6 worst receiving grades on the team this year (IR'd WR Treylon Burks is the solitary exception).
This projects well for our secondary, as well we have the best safety duo in the league right now, outside corners who are arguably starting to find their groove and a slot corner who has quietly been a consistent performer for us. With the team looking to face a future Hall of Famer next week (I say with my tongue firmly in my cheek), this could be a good game for them to get the last few bits right, almost like a midseason preseason game if that makes sense. In fact, that inspires my hot take for this week...
Hot Take: Arnold records his first pro interception as he picks off an errant throw from whoever is under centre for the Titans on Sunday
Score Prediction: While the Titans' defence has its good moments and will likely stifle our offence every now and then, their offence is almost as dross as the one the Seminoles trot out every Saturday. Our Lions win by a large margin.
Detroit Lions 34, Tennessee Titans 10
How do you see the game going? Will the Lions break the curse against the Titans (they haven't beaten them during my lifetime somehow), or will the Titans steal one away from us?
Follow us
Twitter: www.twitter.com/rotl_uk
Instagram: www.instagram.com/rotl.uk
Podcast Links: linktr.ee/roarofthelionsuk
Follow me
Twitter: www.twitter.com/sodenad
Instagram: www.instagram.com/ash.soden
look forward to your conclusions on these players/positions after the game today, ty
Thanks Ash, RE TE's - Just to reiterate what Riz said ,& its worth noting what the Lions want their TE3 /4 to do, and how many game reps they'll actually get . Parker Hesse has been taking most Reps in camp primairly as blocker ( & FB ). Mitchel hasn't performed BUT, can Block & has some ST value,& was a draft pick. Zylstra is the best receiver -,but can't block - heresey on this team. So.........bearing in what Campbell said about the WR room ie its about the best players , irrespective of position......how about.......Mitchel as TE4 , & Zylstra ( TE5 ) taking the place of of WR5 ?
Ash, thank you so much for doing these. You and the rest of the ROTL UK gang are fantastic!
Greetings, I was glad to listen to your interesting interview. The season went really well. I liked the quality of your broadcast, which application did you use for this? Is it on this list? I just want to do live broadcasts