It's nearly the end of the regular season. There are two games left and two more scalps to potentially claim. This one is a big one, though: on national TV, against the team that ended our Super Bowl hopes last season, in their stadium where they performed said ending 11 months ago, with the chance to claim a second division title and the first seed in the conference depending on today's Packers Vikings result.
However, this game is not as difficult as it would have first seemed when the schedule was released. We are one of the best teams in the league, despite being so bare on defence that I might be the next call if we have an injury at SAM. They are also injured but have practically phoned in the season and are looking ahead to next year. So what matchups might prove key to this game if the Niners choose to play?
Z Gonna Make Him Go Night Night: The Niners are really down on their luck on the offensive line. They're down to their OT5 and 6 after injuries to star LT Trent Williams, starting RT Colton McKivitz, backup Jaylon Moore, and swing offensive lineman Spencer Burford. They might also be starting Austen Pleasants at RT, who was on their own practice squad until Christmas Eve. They are also missing their starting LG in Aaron Banks, as well as backups Jon Felicano and Ben Bartch, meaning they will be starting their OG6 in Nick Zakelji at LG. This means the left-hand side of the line will be especially vulnerable on Monday night, as they will be starting Charlie Heck at LT who was on the Cardinals practice squad this time last week.
Heck has played a grand total of 30 snaps this season, most of which came between Weeks 8 and 10 for the Cardinals. He has earned himself a 41.6 PFF grade for his efforts, though this is mostly influenced by his 41.1 run-blocking grade. He did earn an average 60.0 grade in Week 5 (ironically against the Niners), including a 66.4 pass-blocking grade. His seasonal pass-blocking grade is 56.7, having given up two pressures on the season for a 91.7% pass-blocking efficiency. Those two pressures both came in Week 3, against our Lions. Overall, Heck is very much a Skip-type player (Skipper is two inches taller and 20 pounds heavier, but their usage so far this season is very similar) who, due to the Niners' injuries on the offensive line, has been thrust into a starting role. He won't be helped that he will be playing alongside a fellow unblooded player, which hopefully should be something our defensive line can exploit.
Zakelj has played 22 snaps this season, most of which came last week against Miami when he came in for Banks. This season, he has earned a respectable 71.6 grade from PFF, including a 74.7 pass-blocking grade. He also has a 67.2 grade in run-blocking. The reason for his relatively high pass-blocking grade is that he has only allowed one pressure on his 17 pass-blocking snaps this season, giving him a 96.4% pass-blocking efficiency. While Zakelj has played well so far this season, this was in relief for injury, meaning this is his first start of his career. The amount of pressure on him is vastly different, and he might buckle under it due to his inexperience. It will help him that he will be sandwiched by two vets in Heck (drafted in 2020) and Brendel (UDFA in 2016), but he will be sure to make some rookie mistakes due to his 34 pro career snaps, as well as the lack of chemistry along the line (e.g. like the stunt we gave up in Week 1 against the Rams).
Recently, Z has been lining up over the left tackle on most snaps (73% of his snaps last week were in the right-hand edge role). In his games so far in Honolulu blue, Smith has earned himself a 69.7 grade from PFF, though this overall grade is heavily tanked by a 26.3 tackling grade. This poor grade is due to him missing 54.5% of his tackle attempts (6/11), which isn't great and perhaps points as to why he is not playing every down for us as his run defence is also just below average according to PFF with a 58.1 grade, having made 4 run stops on the year for a 7.4% run stop rate. However, that is not why we traded for him. Smith has a 76.2 pass-rushing grade, having created 28 pressures (including 4 sacks) on his 159 pass-rush snaps (17.6% pass-rush win rate). This could cause issues for the Niners' offence, as Smith could create some chaos on Purdy's blindside on obvious passing downs, which is good news for us.
At RT, Pleasants hasn't even played a snap so far this season. In fact, he has only played 10 career snaps in the league, all for the Chargers against the Chiefs in Week 18 last season. On those snaps, Pleasants earned a 34.6 grade, including a 4.8 pass-blocking grade, having given up 2 hurries on his 8 pass-blocking snaps for an 87.5% pass-blocking efficiency. He did have a 54.4 run-blocking grade, however. Josh Paschal will likely be going up against him, in what could be a real prove-it game for him. As much as I love him, and think he is harshly judged by PFF and by fans for playing the role the team asks him to do, he has had some real rough moments this season, especially when holding the edge against mobile QBs. This season, he has a 55.1 grade from PFF, with his highest micro-grade being 63.0 in run defence (14 run stops for a 9.9% run stop rate). He also has a 48.8 pass-rushing grade, having created 26 pressures on the season (8.5% pass-rush win rate), but most of these have been hurries that he did not finish. Going up against an inexperienced tackle who has performed badly in pass protection historically could be what Paschal needs to kick on, especially with the playoffs looming and the fans calling for another edge to be drafted in the upcoming cycle. A good week could save Paschal from becoming a backup in his final year on his rookie deal, perhaps earning him the dreaded "bust" label due to his second-round status.
Giving Kittle a Tickle: The Niners have one potential advantage in this game, and that's Kittle versus our LBs in coverage.
Since Anzalone got hurt in Week 11, only three LBs have graded above 60 in coverage, and one of those 'backers is Rodrigo who is now out as well with his injury. Our highest-graded LB in coverage during this period is Jack Campbell, who has a 71.6 coverage grade since Week 12, having allowed a 72.2% completion rate for 13.2 yards a catch and a 102.1 passer rating when targeted. Our second-highest (active) linebacker is recent returnee Anthony Pittman with a 63.7 grade, having not been targeted on his 5 coverage snaps. Our lowest-graded active linebacker since Week 11 is unfortunately podcast favourite Ezekiel Turner, who, despite his safety background, has earned a 43.1 coverage grade from PFF, having allowed a 100% completion rate for 13 yards a catch and a perfect passer rating when targeted. All in all, we are really missing Anzalone when it comes to coverage, though getting JRM back this week could help. JRM earned a 69.4 coverage grade before his injury, but he too has allowed a catch on every target this season for 8.4 yards a reception and a 101.9 passer rating when targeted.
Looking at Kittle this season, he has been by far and away the Niners' best offensive player in my opinion. He has an 87.7 offence grade from PFF, including an 85.2 receiving grade. He has caught 72.3% of his targets for 1,132 yards (15.5 yards per reception), 44 first downs, 7 TDs and a 72.3% receiving success rate. He has 1.99 yards per route run, and an average depth of target of 9.9 yards. Kittle will likely be Purdy's best friend in this game, especially if we can get pressure on him. Therefore, I suggest we use a gameplan similar to the one we had to use at the tail-end of last season; let Kittle get all the yards he wants so long as we shut down everyone else. While this means a lot of people might win fantasy championships against you, surely the first seed in the NFC is worth it, right?
Hot Take: The secondary finally breaks its streak of no interceptions, picking off Purdy twice.
Score Prediction: We are this close to greatness. The Niners historically might be really scary, but for once they aren't putting the wind up me. I trust our team to win, even with the heavily injured defence against one of the best offensive playcallers in the league not called Andy or Ben. Our offence should be able to put points on their defence, a la Miami last week, but to a greater extent, while the defence will play just well enough to stall San Fran at key times, along with some bad special teams play from the Niners coz I'm that much of a sicko. We'll win, and we'll win big.
San Francisco 49ers 20, Detroit Lions 34
How do you see the game going? Will Detroit finally clinch the division and the first seed with some help from the Cheeseheads, or do the Niners have one last sting in their tail for us?
Follow us
Twitter: www.twitter.com/rotl_uk
Instagram: www.instagram.com/rotl.uk
Podcast Links: linktr.ee/roarofthelionsuk
Follow me
Twitter: www.twitter.com/sodenad
Instagram: www.instagram.com/ash.soden
look forward to your conclusions on these players/positions after the game today, ty
Thanks Ash, RE TE's - Just to reiterate what Riz said ,& its worth noting what the Lions want their TE3 /4 to do, and how many game reps they'll actually get . Parker Hesse has been taking most Reps in camp primairly as blocker ( & FB ). Mitchel hasn't performed BUT, can Block & has some ST value,& was a draft pick. Zylstra is the best receiver -,but can't block - heresey on this team. So.........bearing in what Campbell said about the WR room ie its about the best players , irrespective of position......how about.......Mitchel as TE4 , & Zylstra ( TE5 ) taking the place of of WR5 ?
Ash, thank you so much for doing these. You and the rest of the ROTL UK gang are fantastic!
Greetings, I was glad to listen to your interesting interview. The season went really well. I liked the quality of your broadcast, which application did you use for this? Is it on this list? I just want to do live broadcasts