Would It Be Shocking If The Lions Didn't Make A Trade?

The Detroit Lions are 6-1. Top of the NFC North. Top of the NFC. Best start to a season since 1956. But! They are missing talent on the edges, which will be the focus of this article, with injuries for several names who played wholly or in part there, being:

• Aidan Hutchinson

• Marcus Davenport

• John Cominsky

• Derrick Barnes

The current edge rotation (on the main roster) is as follows:

• Josh Paschal

• Levi Onwuzurike

• Isaiah Thomas

• Mekhi Wingo

• James Houston

• Trevor Nowaske

Levi and Wingo are naturally 3-5 tech defensive tackles with edge versatility. Houston is (at the moment) a 3rd-down designated pass rusher. Nowaske is an off-ball linebacker doing some things at edge.

The only natural edges therefore are Paschal and Thomas, an often injured but functional pass rusher and a man who has been here for a couple of weeks. There is of course Al-Quadin Muhammad, who was promising on his debut, Mitchell Agude and Isaac Ukwu on the practice squad. However, the need for some premium talent on the edge is apparent.

Whilst this unit is likely sufficient to make the playoffs, perhaps with the NFC North and maybe even get the number seed, but is it really good enough to beat good teams back to back in the playoffs?

Ok, so we've made the case FOR a trade, in terms of need. But we haven't for one second considered who is doing the trading - Brad Holmes.

Let's have a look at the player trade made in the Holmes tenure (in and out):

• CB Jeff Okudah to ATL for a 2023 5th

• RB D'Andre Swift & a 2023 7th to PHI for a 2025 4th and 2023 7th

• TE TJ Hockenson and a 2023 4th and 2024 conditional 4th for a 2023 2nd and 2024 3rd

• WR Trinity Benson from DEN & a 2023 6th for 2022 5th and 7th

• DT Michael Brockers from LAR for a 2023 7th

• QB Matthew Stafford to LAR for QB Jared Goff, a 2021 3rd, 2022 & 2023 1sts

There are other more minor trades.

Firstly to note, there are very few trades above that are relevant to the current situation. None are in the same position group. However, generally - only the Stafford trade involved Day 1 pick. No trades inwards have involved day 2 picks.

So let's have a look around the league at other recently similar trades. Since the 2022 season, there have only been 9 trades involving edge rushers (per Spotrac). Salary figures in brackets:

• 2024: Cam Thomas ($1.2m) to KC from ARI for a 2025 7th

• 2024: John Franklin-Myers ($13.9m) to DEN from NYJ for a 2026 6th

• 2023: Chase Young ($3m) to SF from WAS for a 2024 3rd

• 2023: Montez Sweat ($6.4m) to CHI from WAS for a 2024 2nd

• 2023: Leonard Williams ($647k) to SEA from NYG for a 2024 2nd and 2025 5th

• 2023: Kentavius Street ($600k) and a 2025 7th from PHI to ATL for a 2024 conditional 6th

• 2023: Za'Darius Smith (?) and a 2025 6th and 7th to CLE from MIN for 2024 and 2025 5ths

• 2022: Jake Martin ($575k) and a 2024 5th to DEN from NYJ for a 2024 4th

• 2022: Robert Quinn ($684k) to PHI from CHI for a 2023 4th

In summary of the above, people not worth the amount they're being paid are cheap, low ability fliers are cheap, rentals are mildly expensive, and good player are expensive and come with shiny new contracts. The only "fun zone" trade is a player linked with the Lions - Za'Darius Smith, amongst a loads of players that are uninteresting for one reason or another.

So, the sweet spot for a trade is someone of ability that improves the rotation or the starters, for a day 3 pick, who won't demand a new contract. This could be someone from a losing team, in the last year of their contract, or someone not performing up to their deal for schematic reasons. The candidates I've found that fit into each bucket are below:

Losing teams: (remaining 2024 cap hit in brackets)

• Jadeveon Clowney ($605k) - Carolina Panthers

• Arden Key ($710k) - Tennessee Titans

• Harold Landry ($8.6m) - Tennessee Titans

• Haason Reddick ($7.1m) - New York Jets

• WIll McDonald ($457k) - New York Jets

• Cam Jordan ($605k) - New Orleans Saints

• Carl Granderson ($585k) - New Orleans Saints

• Payton Turner ($1.2m) - New Orleans Saints

• Chase Young ($1.35m) - New Orleans Saints

• Josh Hines-Allen ($1m) - Jacksonville Jaguars

• Travon Walker ($442k) - Jacksonville Jaguars

• Za'Darius Smith ($605k) - Cleveland Browns

Final year deals (not from teams who definitely won't be selling):

• DeMarcus Lawrence ($627k) - Dallas Cowboys

• Emmanuel Ogbah ($1m) - Miami Dolphins

Underperformers:

• Matthew Judon ($3.25m) - Atlanta Falcons

• Dre'Mont Jones ($663k) - Seattle Seahawks

• Joe Tryon-Shoyinka ($1.1m) - Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Leonard Floyd ($605k) - San Francisco 49ers

What is clear with all of the above is that not many of them have a lot of cap which will be saved by the selling team, which tends to increase the price as the incentive to sell reduces. Therefore, attention is really only on those cap hits which are very high, or teams which are in full sell mode and that player has no future in the organisation. The top candidates therefore, for me, are:

• Jadeveon Clowney ($605k) - Carolina Panthers

• Harold Landry ($8.6m) - Tennessee Titans

• WIll McDonald ($457k) - New York Jets

• Travon Walker ($442k) - Jacksonville Jaguars

• Za'Darius Smith ($605k) - Cleveland Browns

• Emmanuel Ogbah ($1m) - Miami Dolphins

Clowney of all those above is the most likely to be moved, given how bad the Panthers are. However, he's unlikely to be a culture fit, and that is important to the Lions. Too important? Perhaps. But important nonetheless.

Landry just isn't good enough to back up that price. He might only be a pickswap at that price however. Mark it down as possible.

Will McDonald has 8 sacks in 8 games this season with the Jets, but frankly can't defend the run. A James Houston clone perhaps. Not likely to interest the Lions.

Travon Walker has 6.5 sacks in 8 games after 10 sacks last season. Whilst he was the first overall pick, and hasn't lived up to that, he's a very functional and relatively cheap player for JAX. The price tag there is likely to be higher than the Lions are willing to pay, perhaps a day 2 pick and change.

Za'Darius Smith has slowed down since leaving Green Bay, with 10 sacks in MIN in 2022, 5.5 for CLE in 2023 and 5 sacks so far this season in 8 games. He is however much better against the run and his value is defined by his prior trades. He is likely to be worth an early day 3 pick or 2 latter day 3 picks.

Emmanuel Ogbah is an average player and has been for a long time - having been 2021 since he had back to back 10+ sack seasons. He should be available for a late day 3 pick.

Given all of the above, Smith and Ogbah are the only two that appear somewhat likely given need and desire, but other teams are also likely to come to similar conclusions and there aren't enough players to go around.

So, after all of this article, what did we learn?

The Lions really could use a pass rusher to help down the stretch.

There are very few that fit the bill.

So would it be a surprise to see the Lions come out of the trade deadline without one? No, no it wouldn't. Brad Holmes doesn't like wasting picks, and has talked at length about planning for a dynasty, not just a 2 year run. Don't expect him to act like 2024 is the only year that matters now.

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